Late Failures in Therapeutic Development: Why do they occur Frequently?

Seminar Series

Monday, August 28, 2017 - 03:30
Hock Plaza, Ground Floor Auditorium
Steven Piantadosi


This is an examination of the development pipeline from the perspective of the frequency of false positive treatments that eventually fail. With regard to them, the pipeline can be seen to be a Bayesian learning algorithm, and can be described quantitatively.  As such, even a modest failure rate suggests that the treatments finding their way into therapeutic development are predominantly true negatives.  Why and how this can happen is a matter of scientific culture and psychology, which will be discussed in the last half of the talk.

**Note: This talk should appeal to a mixed audience of biostatistics and clinical researchers. The talk basically summarizes Chapter 10 in the new 3rd edition of "Clinical Trials" which will be out any day now.

Speaker: Steven Piantadosi, MD, PhD

Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute
Cedars-Sinai Medical Center
Los Angeles, California 90048