Risk Prediction models of Aging-Related Outcomes

Seminar Series

Monday, March 8, 2021 - 12:00
Zoom Conference
Terence Murphy, PhD

Abstract: This talk will review the basic elements of selecting and validating a risk prediction model based on examples from the Yale Program on Aging. Examples include a model of death within 180 days of discharge from hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, a model of serious falls within 180 days among middle-aged U.S. Veterans, and a model of persistent functional decline among older survivors of critical illness that exploits the sophisticated survey design of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) to yield what is arguably a nationally representative risk prediction model. The talk will include some suggestions for how such models can be made more accessible to health providers and how they may be used to help patients think about prevention.  

Bio: Dr. Terrence E. Murphy is an Associate Professor of Geriatrics and Biostatistics and serves as the director of the Biostatistics Core of the Yale Program on Aging. His current research areas include development and implementation of risk prediction  models, ways of assessing the tradeoffs of multiple medication use, and the use of hierarchical models, propensity scores, and Bayesian techniques to enhance the analysis of non-randomized interventional designs.

Speaker: Terrence E. Murphy, PhD
Associate Professor
Yale University School of Medicine


Zoom: https://duke.zoom.us/j/93221697049?pwd=enVXeFlXbGdkLzI5R0I0cXlpeWFFUT09

Passcode: 123553